Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 16.136960 18.734828 21.553583 24.831128 28.528881 32.562917 37.287975
2024-12-22 11.583132 15.035142 19.138545 24.338408 30.710997 38.222681 47.699429
2024-12-29 9.346031 13.341125 18.467902 25.438105 34.563162 45.988162 61.242416
2025-01-05 7.569576 11.765367 17.526283 25.849722 37.372717 52.541602 73.754497
2025-01-12 6.176000 10.381941 16.522796 25.889697 39.507995 58.226733 85.455022
2025-01-19 5.131928 9.278557 15.684201 25.945209 41.526580 63.769704 97.245888
2025-01-26 4.705554 9.045541 16.072368 27.789701 46.219977 73.338587 115.268438
2025-02-02 4.219240 8.612110 16.055772 28.954136 49.928193 81.675897 132.006449
2025-02-09 3.795507 8.204523 16.004585 30.014738 53.508290 90.003850 149.191621
2025-02-16 3.273233 7.514310 15.360820 29.983454 55.281685 95.619091 162.538944
2025-02-23 2.738788 6.695616 14.363377 29.201258 55.694764 99.055755 172.632527
2025-03-02 2.275095 5.928186 13.343979 28.239387 55.670152 101.717316 181.567932
2025-03-09 1.987549 5.499070 12.942482 28.414817 57.720481 108.052668 197.049461
2025-03-16 1.685690 4.974974 12.275909 28.009566 58.695798 112.658658 210.000226
2025-03-23 1.566110 4.866790 12.464818 29.307448 62.910792 123.087135 233.308122
2025-03-30 1.399675 4.602208 12.271210 29.793942 65.608995 130.989942 252.683242
2025-04-06 1.226371 4.278794 11.894732 29.847144 67.455895 137.460401 269.885854
2025-04-13 1.077406 3.987180 11.546209 29.912872 69.314574 144.035974 287.580454
2025-04-20 1.053378 4.059670 12.087564 31.997656 75.397673 158.732474 320.474117
2025-04-27 0.990050 3.997134 12.282552 33.312336 79.980862 170.845336 349.223599
2025-05-04 0.926002 3.917647 12.422258 34.508794 84.393346 182.849867 378.294393
2025-05-11 0.817222 3.661154 12.058028 34.473582 86.176482 189.882853 398.473426
2025-05-18 0.691696 3.309236 11.377202 33.591392 86.044013 193.152615 411.731737